An attempt at a Rational Assessment of What a Second Trump Term Would Actually be Like
Unlikely: actual dictatorship, becoming a Russian colony. Likely: corruption, special favors for the rich, and lots of crazy shit.
One can be forgiven, having watched Trump’s reaction to losing in 2020, for thinking that we could be seeing the last election this time around. But as much as 2020 revealed American democracy’s weaknesses, it also revealed why it sticks around: division of power, popular disdain for dictators, and the seemingly inevitable tendency for those who seek power illegally to also be extremely stupid.
Of course few have an incentive to point out why the Four Seasons Total Landscaping Plot failed. Republicans would rather avoid the embarrassing topic altogether, while Democrats and their allies prefer to use it as a way to drum up fear of Trump, perhaps unknowingly helping him by suggesting that he’s competent enough to do it successfully a second time around. As much as I dislike Trump (is there anyone who’s dedicated to rationality who likes Trump?), I also think it’s important to recognize that he’s not literally the second coming of Hitler, partly because he’s just not that capable.
So I’m going to go through a bunch of predictions regarding a second Trump administration, from least likely to most likely, and provide my best attempt at a sober, rational assessment:
Dictatorship
Interestingly, the people most concerned about a Trump dictatorship seem to be anti-Trump Republicans, perhaps helped along by the dreams of Trump and his allies. Trump has made his infamous “dictator on day one” promise, and Project 2025 seems eager to install Trump loyalists at every part of government.
So it’s no surprise that someone like Liz Cheney predicts that Americans are “sleepwalking into dictatorship.” After all, she herself was kicked out of a GOP that now purges anyone who questions whatever Trump wants. So what if after the next election, sycophantic Republicans control the House, Senate, and the courts, with Trump himself overseeing it all?
The problem with asking that question, however, is that you have to answer it. What does happen? Trump can’t just pass a law declaring himself the king of a hereditary monarchy and cancel elections forever. Undoubtedly there would be plenty of support for such a move in the GOP (although it would be difficult to get every GOP senator behind it), and there’s probably one or two Supreme Court justices who would declare it constitutional. But he’d need a majority of the justices, and as extreme as this court is, the majority hasn’t shown much willingness throw out democracy entirely.
Furthermore the division of power in the US is not just in the federal government. There’s also state vs. federal, and as we saw in 2020 Republican state governors don’t seem as eager to pledge allegiance to every aspect of the Trump cult, even while still endorsing him. Another problem for Trump is state legislatures - while these have a reputation for attracting hyperpartisan nutters, what gets less attention is that many of these are populated by people who just want a cool thing to put on their resume. Usually state senator or representative is not a full time job, and these people may have other day jobs - often in law. In addition to wanting to stay employed and licensed, they also lack 24/7 security. So suffice to say, overthrowing democracy is a very bad idea for them.
That fundamentally is the problem. Sure there’s a lot of MAGA crazies out there, but there’s just not enough of them to carry out such a plot. Plus, Republican control can have a moderating effect. Being the unreliable guy in the middle carries power, just look at John McCain. It’s better to be the guy that everyone’s trying to please than the one who follows a leader unquestioningly. Especially if that leader is as incompetent and unresourceful as Trump.
Of course I could be wrong, and I’m not fully going into all the things Trump might do for brevity and to avoid giving anyone any ideas. But honestly, I think it’s just too hard to do, especially for someone like Trump who has a sub-School House Rock level of understanding of government to begin with.
NATO Exit/Alignment with Russia
Trump has been pretty gripey about NATO and this has only increased since the start of the Ukraine war. However, looking at his last administration, my sense is that Trump generally hates geopolitics and tends to let smarter people handle it. This means he simply won’t have the attention span/energy for actually pulling the US out of NATO, and while a shift to less support for Ukraine is likely, I doubt Trump will cut them off entirely because it would just be politically too unpopular, especially among foreign policy and military Republicans. It’ll be high effort, low reward for him and he’d probably rather be out doing a political rally than listening to the next John Bolton complain at him all day.
One caveat here is that foreign dictators quickly figured out during the last Trump administration that praise and possibly bribery are effective with Trump. Expect to see these efforts pumped up to 11 if Trump returns, but it’s unclear if Trump has the competence and attention span to translate these desires of foreign governments into actual policy changes.
Corruption
Corruption, on the other hand, is extremely likely. Among all the scandals about trying to overturn the election, pressuring a foreign president to help him win reelection, sexual assualts, and various other things that would end the career of any ordinary president, several Trump corruption scandals flew under the radar. Among them:
The Egyptian cash for military aid scandal alluded to above
Kushner’s “Affinity Partners” enormous fees from foreign countries, notably Saudi Arabia
Pardons for friends, allies, and a suspicious number of people who seem to be particularly wealthy. Many of these were also convicted of political corruption like Duncan Hunter and John Tate. One woman who worked for Giuliani and subsequently sued him (ongoing) for a litany of behavior alleged in a lawsuit that he tried to sell pardons for $2 million each, to be split between him and Trump.
Appointing family members, financial supporters, and classic corrupt politicians to key positions.
This type of behavior tends to evoke much less fear and attention than the anti-democracy stuff, but it can be a very serious threat. Corruption is a common fear of doing business in many foreign countries, and a shift towards extreme state-led corruption like that which exists in Russia could cause the US to lose its many hard-won economic advantages. Of course it would also destroy faith in the justice system, leading to more riots and social turmoil. We certainly saw that sort of thing last administration, and this time it’ll probably be even worse.
Classic Republican Bullshit
Tax cuts for the rich, social authoritarianism, doubling down on fossil fuels and pollution, Christian right hegemony. The Republican bread and butter will continue just as it did before.
Crazy Shit and General Disarray
Almost too obvious to state. Trump was plenty deranged last time, and it’s obvious by now that he’s gotten worse. The most competent people from his last administration seem to hate him now, and he seems to be surrounded by an array of nutters, each with their own bizarre extremism they hope to impose on him if he becomes president.
Meanwhile Trump hates it when anyone else tries to lead, and will be resistant to efforts to sideline him as he descends further into madness. Expect crazy press conferences, midnight tweets that terrify all, firings, quittings, unexplained absences, and almost certainly, at some point, a member of the administration throwing his hands up in the air and leaving a room full of reporters in total silence.
Conclusion
So that’s my prediction. We’ll survive, but it’ll suck. The occasionally hilarity will not nearly be worth the pain. Bad policy and exacerbating corruption doesn’t feel that bad - but there’s people like Josseli Barnica, Amber Thurman, and Candi Miller who almost certainly would still be alive if Trump was never president. That’s just the tip of the iceberg of the harm done by Trump’s last administration, and there’s a much, much bigger iceberg on the horizon.